With the NHL season entering its final weekend, let's take a look at each team's MVP and what to expect in the playoffs. For those teams outside the top eight, I'll take a look at what they need to improve on in the offseason.
Atlantic Division
Philadelphia Flyers - Claude Giroux
This was a tough one because the Flyers don't rely on any one player in order to win. If Danny Briere gets shut down, then Mike Richards produces, or Jeff Carter, or Ville Leino, or...you get the idea. Each player has gone through their hot streaks, but Giroux has been the most consistent player all season leading the team with 51 assists and 76 points. He's the only one of their top five scorers to play in every game. Runners up: Mike Richards, Sergei Bobrovsky.
Playoffs: The Flyers are struggling, 2-4-4 in their past 10 games. They have only scored 2.4 goals per game in that span, off their season average of 3.08. Should they face Henrik Lundqvist of the Rangers or Ryan Miller of the Sabres in the first round, they might be in trouble. Good news for them, Chris Pronger should be back for the first round, it's just a matter of when. Should this team get focused again, they can easily make it four years in a row with a Pennsylvania team in the final.
Pittsburgh Penguins - Marc-Andre Fleury
The pens had to change their philosophy after Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin went down, but their defensive approach wouldn't have mattered if Fleury wasn't able to hold down the fort. In 64 appearances, Fleury posted some of the best numbers of his career with a 35-20-5 record, 2.31 goals-against average and .918 save percentage. Take away his terrible start and those numbers improve to 34-14-5, 2.15 goals-against average and .925 save percentage. He meant everything to this team considering their top three players have only played half a season each and their highest active scorer is Kris Letang with eight goals and 49 points. Runners up: Dan Bylsma, Sidney Crosby.
Playoffs: They are going to get home ice against Tampa Bay in the first round. With their newfound commitment to defense, they should have no problem against the slumping Steven Stamkos. Unless Crosby comes back however, their lack of depth, especially at center, will be exposed. With Sid, you can never count them out of making the Stanley Cup final. Without him, they will have a hard time winning two rounds.
New York Rangers - Henrik Lundqvist
King Henrik leads the league with 11 shutouts and while the Rangers offense isn't terrible, at 2.70 goals per game (17th in the league) they aren't great either. The Rangers only managed one goal in three of his shutouts and two in two others (one where the second goal was an empty-netter) so they clearly depend on him for wins more often than not. He is a wall every night in net and the driving force behind their season. Runners up: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan.
Playoffs: They aren't certain to make the playoffs, but should they get in they could give a top-ranked team a lot of trouble in the first round. Lundqvist can win a round or two by himself, but losing Callahan with a broken ankle will hurt as he is first in points per game (0.80), second in hits (224), second among forwards in blocked shots (77) and third among forwards in take aways (42).
New Jersey Devils - Patrik Elias
One of the most overlooked and underrated players since 1999-2000, Elias' seven game point streak (3G, 8P) was the first sign of consistency in for the Devils all season and help ignite a run that saw them salvage a respectable season while being in shouting distance of the playoff race for a little bit. Like many of the Devils, he ended the season strongly, his hat trick against the Flyers on April 1 was his first since April 5, 2006. He not only provides the offense, but is the heart and soul of the Devils as well. Runners up: Jacques Lemaire, Johan Hedberg.
Offseason: Aside from convincing Jacques Lemaire to come back, the Devils need to shore up their defense. When Andy Greene and Henrik Tallinder lead the defense in ice time, you have a problem. They also need to find a replacement for Brodeur soon. Hedberg had a good year, but he is clearly not a long-term solution. Their offense should be fine. Expect bounceback seasons from Elias, Kovalchuk, Zach Parise, Travis Zajac and David Clarkson while Mattias Tedenby and Jacob Josefson continue to develop.
New York Islanders - Michael Grabner
Grabner's second half (25 goals since Jan. 1) allowed the Islanders to escape a dreadful season with 30 wins. They were 13-4-1 when he scored during that streak and made them look dangerous for brief stretches. The Canucks and Panthers castoff was one of the few bright spots in the season. Runners up: John Tavares, Frans Nielson.
Summer: Where to begin? If Al Montoya can play like he did in limited action this year, their goaltending will be OK. They need help everywhere, especially on defense. Their top offensive players will be good, but they need more depth. Getting rid of Trevor Gillies would be a solid game plan too.
Northeast Division
Boston Bruins - Tim Thomas
Pretty much a no-brainer here. Thomas was the most dominant player for a strong Bruins team. While Tuukka Rask's stats weren't bad, but he finished with a sub-.500 record while Thomas had 34 wins in just 54 games. His numbers are even more amazing because only Carolina allowed more shots per game than Boston (32.7). Runners up: Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron.
Playoffs: The Bruins are going to be a fierce team and will certainly win a round, most likely two. The Bruins were fine until Krejci got hurt exposing their lack of offensive depth. This is Nathan Horton's first foray into the playoffs and it will be interesting to see how he handles it. They can't expect a surge of goals from Mark Recchi (his six last year was the most in four years and he's 43) and Miro Satan (unsigned, now playing in KHL). Despite one of the strongest overall defenses in the East, they are a Conference final team at best.
Montreal Canadiens - Carey Price
Price was one of the busiest goalies this season and he made the most of it making Habs fans forget about last year's hero Jaroslav Halak. Thanks to his strong play, Montreal had a much easier time making the playoffs this year. Their offense has dried up at times and they rank 24th in the league with 2.58 goals per game while allowing 31 shots per game. Runners up: Brian Gionta, P.K. Subban.
Playoffs: As good a regular season as they had, they will be hard-pressed to do much in the playoffs. The odds of Price repeating what Halak did last year are slim and they were recently shut out three games in a row. They could upset a team in the first round, but since they will most likely play the Bruins, that is unlikely.
Buffalo Sabres - Ryan Miller
He wasn't lights-out like he was last year, but Miller turned up his play when it mattered most. They went from a struggle to make the playoffs, now they only need one more point to secure a playoff spot. With Derek Roy out since game 35 and Thomas Vanek their only consistent scorer, they need Miller to be at his best and while he struggled early, his play in the past two months saved the Sabres from missing the playoffs for the third time in four years. Runners up: Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford.
Playoffs: Despite their late-season surge, the Sabres could be looking at a second consecutive first round loss. They are still too small to do much damage in the playoffs. Their only chance is for Miller to play like he did all last season, but even that likely won't be enough.
Toronto Maple Leafs - James Reimer
Reimer was the only reason the Leafs even got a sniff at the playoffs. He far outplayed J-S Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson and helped the Leafs to their best point total since 2006-07. He started winning almost instantly after being called up from the Marlies and the rookie gave the Leafs look respectable for three months. Runners up: Mikhail Grabovski, Phil Kessel.
Offseason: They really need to work on their bottom six forwards. From the looks of things, they have plenty of players capable of filling the net on the top two lines, but they were exposed after that. They also need a number one center who can play with Kessel and feed him the way Savard did back in Boston.
Ottawa Senators - Craig Anderson
He has only played 18 games, but who else is there? On a team where only one regular finished with a positive plus-minus, bright spots were few and far between. Anderson has played great, posting a .939 save percentage and 2.05 goals-against average after coming over from Colorado. If nothing else, he got the team out of last place in the East. Runners up: Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson.
Offseason: In a word, everything. The rebuild is starting in Canada's capital and it may take a while. the interesting story to watch is what they do with Daniel Alfredsson. He wants to stay and don't get me wrong that's very noble of him, but it also may hurt the team like when Mats Sundin didn't accept a trade out of Toronto.
Southeast Division
Washington Capitals - Michal Neuvirth
Washington ditched their high-flying approach to the game this season in exchange for a philosophy that might get them some wins past April. Varlamov was hurt for a portion of the year and with only 22 games of experience prior to this season, Neuvirth held his own. He also had a much better winning percentage than Varlamov. Runners up: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson
Playoffs: This is what they have been waiting for all season, the chance to see if their change into a defensive club works. They are 7-2-1 in their past ten and 15-2-1 since March 1. They are going in on fire and will have home ice in every round. The Caps definitely have the best chance to represent the East in the Stanley Cup final.
Tampa Bay Lightning - Martin St-Louis
Steven Stamkos seems like the obvious pick, but St-Louis is the driving force behind the Bolts. He's second in the league with 66 assists and the main reason Stamkos has at least 44 goals in each of the past two seasons. St-Louis leads the team in take aways and is second among forwards in blocked shots and only has 12 penalty minutes this season. Runners up: Steven Stamkos, Dwayne Roloson.
Playoffs: GM Steve Yzerman did a great job getting the Bolts back into the playoffs, but there is still work to be done. They don't quite have the defense or secondary scoring, so they will likely be out in the first round, second in a best case scenario.
Carolina Hurricanes - Cam Ward
No goalie has played more minutes this season and he really kept them from sinking early in the season. He faces more shots per game than anyone and still posted the best save percentage (.923) and second best goals-against average (2.56) of his career. Runners up: Eric Staal, Jeff Skinner.
Playoffs: They may still sneak into the eighth spot and while they won't be a pushover, don't expect much either. They don't have a lot of secondary scoring behind Stall and Skinner and their defense clearly needs work. Though Washington is more defensive this year, their firepower is still there and can get a lot of shots on Ward. If they do get in, they'll be out early.
Atlanta Thrashers - Dustin Byfuglien
'Big Buff' was spectacular in the first half of the season and while he ended on a sour note, was still the most important player for the Thrashers this season. He recorded his first 20 goal season after moving back to defense and as he went this season, so did the Thrashers. Byfuglien is second on the team in ice time (23:17) and hits(139), first in PIM (93), power play goals (eight) game-winning goals (six), shots (342) and take aways (85). Runners up: Tobias Enstrom, Ondrej Pavelec.
Offseason: Their defense isn't terrible, they just need a high-end scorer. Andrew Ladd, Nik Antropov and Blake Wheeler are good, but none of them are game-breakers. If they don't get someone in free agency, they have to depend on continued development from Anthony Stewart and Evander Kane and a return to 30-goal form for Bryan Little.
Florida Panthers - Tomas Vokoun
Take away Vokoun and this is by far the worst team in the NHL. Despite playing on a team that gave up the seventh most shots (31.9 per game) and scored the fourth fewest goals (2.35 goals per game), Vokoun had a respectable 21-28-5 record with a .921 save percentage and 2.60 goals-against average. It's hard to say where this team would be without him because they certainly can't get much worse. Runners up: Stephen Weiss, David Booth.
Offseason: True, this has been going on for 11 years, but the Panthers are in rebuilding mode. They parted ways with a number of players and almost certainly won't keep Vokoun in the fold. They need help everywhere, plain and simple.
Friday, 8 April 2011
Tuesday, 5 April 2011
Ten Worst Contracts (Until The Summer, Anyway)
Good news for Tampa Bay Lightning center Vincent Lecavalier, he has had no permanent damage to his right eye after taking a high stick to the face from Chicago's Michael Frolik. He received stitches, was seen with an eye patch after the game and had an eye contusion, but should be ready to go when the Bolts face the Buffalo Sabres tonight. After a slow start to the season, Lecavalier is heating up at the right time and has 25 points in his past 25 games.
Unfortunately for Lecavalier, despite his strong play lately, he is still not doing nearly enough to earn his contract. Not only is he overpaid, but in the salary cap era, it hurts his team even more because it leaves less space to sign other players to help out the team. He shouldn't worry though, he is not alone in having a big contract that is hurting his team. Here are the 10 contracts in the NHL that hurt teams the most.
10. Kimmo Timonen, Phi: Six years, $38 million ($6,333,333 cap hit)
One of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL, Timonen plays a smart, mistake-free game, makes an excellent first pass out of the zone and can quarterback the powerplay. So why am I including him? Since joining the Flyers in 2007, Timonen has recorded 22 goals in 318 games, an average of just under six goals every 82 games. Obviously there is more to his game than just goals, but at 5-foot-10, 194 lbs. he has trouble handling the bigger forwards. On a team that features seven players with a cap hit of over $4 million and struggles to fit under the ceiling, they could use any space they could find. Not that they should get rid of him, but GM Paul Holmgren will surely be breathing easier when his contract is up.
9. Brian Rolston, NJ: Four years, $20.25 million ($5,062,500 cap hit)
The only thing keeping Rolston from being higher on this list is that his contract is up after next season. He looked attractive after three straight seasons of 30+ goals after the lockout to go along with solid all-around play. Rolston has recorded only one season of 20 goals since signing the contract and is nearly invisible most games. All he really does is take slapshots whenever he gets open and is too slow to have much of an effect anywhere. After next season, they should have cap space in order to give Zach Parise a contract raise.
8. Ryan Smyth, LA: Five years, $31.25 million ($6,250,000 cap hit)
After failing to come to term with the Edmonton Oilers and the subsequent trade to the New York Islanders in 2007, Smyth signed a monster deal with the Colorado Avalanche. After an injury-shortened first year, Smyth has reached 20 each season since, but a cap hit of over $6 million for a player no longer the dominant crease crasher he once was. Although his contract is up after next season, they will surely need the cap space a year earlier to sign RFAs Drew Doughty and Wayne Simmonds; the $4 million they have now won't be enough to sign both.
7. Derek Boogaard, NYR: Four years, $6.5 million ($1,625,000 cap hit)
Sure, the cap hit isn't huge, but, well...what does he do? He has only appeared in 22 games this season and was scratched four times before a shoulder injury derailed his season. Even when he was playing he only fought the other teams' tough guys; he's too slow to really put a scare into anyone useful as sppedy forwards can easily get around him. This could have easily been switched with the Jody Shelley contract with Philadelphia.
6. Shawn Horcoff, Edm: Six years, $33 million ($5,500,000 cap hit)
Horcoff is very luck to be getting the paycheck he is receiving. A $5.5 million price tag is pretty high for someone who has onyl reached the 20 goal mark twice. The Oilers are going to have some potentially expensive RFAs to resign in the next few years, including Devin Dubnyk, Andrew Cogliano, Linus Omark and Sam Gagner and, if their rebuild is going as planned, they will want to add some key free agents to build towards a playoff run. That will be hard to do with Horcoff, who has scored 22 goals in two seasons after signing the deal, causing such a big cap hit.
5. Eric Staal, Car: Seven years, $57.75 million ($8,250,000 cap hit)
Only three players, Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, have a higher cap hit than Eric Staal. It is good they got their franchise player locked up for the long-term and while they still have plenty of cap space at the moment, they may be in trouble once Jeff Skinner, Brandon Sutter and Jamie McBain are up for pay raises. As impressive as his resume is with a 100 point season and Stanley Cup under his belt, it is hard to believe he is making more per season than Brad Richards, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Lundqvist and the Sedins.
4. Rick DiPietro, NYI: Fifteen years, $67.5 million ($4,500,000 cap hit)
Truth be told, if it wasn't for his injury woes DiPietro's contract wouldn't be that bad. A $4.5 million cap hit for a reliable goalies isn't a bad deal. The key word there is reliable. In the five years since signing the deal, DiPietro has only played 162 games, an average of 32 per season, and twice failed to play 10 games due to lingering groin problems. The Islanders are still stuck with him for another decade. Should he finally stay healthy and become anywhere near the caliber goalie worth being the number one pick, this contract won't seem that bad. Until then, 15 years will seem like 30 as he spends most of his time on the shelf. Some good news for the Islanders though, next season Alexei Yashin, even though he hasn't played in four years, ceases to be their highest paid player. That distinction will fall to DiPietro who has pretty much done the same thing.
3. Scott Gomez, Mtl: Seven years, $51.5 million ($7,357,143 cap hit)
How can a guy who has only reached the 20 goal mark once in seven seasons get a contract that big? Even for Glen Sather, that's bad. He hasn't scored more than 16 since signing the deal and won't even score 10 this year. He makes almost $2.5 million more than Brian Gionta who brings a lot more to the table and is the main reason the Canadiens are so close to the cap ceiling this season. the Canadiens have to sign at least 11 players in the offseason and only $25 million to work with. Losing Gomez's cap hit would be a big help, but it's hard to imagine another team willing to take him on, especially after declining numbers the past four seasons.
2. Vincent Lecavalier, TB: Eleven years, $85 million ($7,727,273 cap hit)
Lecavalier's contract is going to be a burden on the Lightning for the next nine seasons. They have about $9 million in cap space this season, but even with Simon Gagne's $5.25 million coming off the books, that number will surely get closer to the ceiling as GM Steve Yzerman has to give raises to Steven Stamkos and Teddy Purcell and sign a number one defenseman and two goalies. I don't know what Lecavalier did to earn this contract. He is a good player, but take away his 52 goal season in 2006-07 and he averages just 26.8 goals per season. Not exactly Michael Jordan-like stats, so why is he receiving Michael Jordan-like money?
1. Brian Campbell, Chi: Eight years, $57.143 million ($7, 142,875 cap hit)
Campbell is one of the biggest winners of the idea of supply and demand in free agent history. The only puck-mover on the market three years ago, Campbell benefited greatly from a strong contract year, including 19 points in 20 games to end the season with the San Jose Sharks. A weak free agency class surely made him appear more attractive than he should have been to then-GM Dale Tallon. At 6-foot, 189 pounds, Campbell has trouble with bigger forwards and isn't overly physical (though I bet R. J. Umberger would love to argue that point). With five players making over $5 million and less than $30,000 in cap space, GM Stan Bowman would love for Campbell's contract to disappear. His is clearly the most burdensome in the NHL.
Unfortunately for Lecavalier, despite his strong play lately, he is still not doing nearly enough to earn his contract. Not only is he overpaid, but in the salary cap era, it hurts his team even more because it leaves less space to sign other players to help out the team. He shouldn't worry though, he is not alone in having a big contract that is hurting his team. Here are the 10 contracts in the NHL that hurt teams the most.
10. Kimmo Timonen, Phi: Six years, $38 million ($6,333,333 cap hit)
One of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL, Timonen plays a smart, mistake-free game, makes an excellent first pass out of the zone and can quarterback the powerplay. So why am I including him? Since joining the Flyers in 2007, Timonen has recorded 22 goals in 318 games, an average of just under six goals every 82 games. Obviously there is more to his game than just goals, but at 5-foot-10, 194 lbs. he has trouble handling the bigger forwards. On a team that features seven players with a cap hit of over $4 million and struggles to fit under the ceiling, they could use any space they could find. Not that they should get rid of him, but GM Paul Holmgren will surely be breathing easier when his contract is up.
9. Brian Rolston, NJ: Four years, $20.25 million ($5,062,500 cap hit)
The only thing keeping Rolston from being higher on this list is that his contract is up after next season. He looked attractive after three straight seasons of 30+ goals after the lockout to go along with solid all-around play. Rolston has recorded only one season of 20 goals since signing the contract and is nearly invisible most games. All he really does is take slapshots whenever he gets open and is too slow to have much of an effect anywhere. After next season, they should have cap space in order to give Zach Parise a contract raise.
8. Ryan Smyth, LA: Five years, $31.25 million ($6,250,000 cap hit)
After failing to come to term with the Edmonton Oilers and the subsequent trade to the New York Islanders in 2007, Smyth signed a monster deal with the Colorado Avalanche. After an injury-shortened first year, Smyth has reached 20 each season since, but a cap hit of over $6 million for a player no longer the dominant crease crasher he once was. Although his contract is up after next season, they will surely need the cap space a year earlier to sign RFAs Drew Doughty and Wayne Simmonds; the $4 million they have now won't be enough to sign both.
7. Derek Boogaard, NYR: Four years, $6.5 million ($1,625,000 cap hit)
Sure, the cap hit isn't huge, but, well...what does he do? He has only appeared in 22 games this season and was scratched four times before a shoulder injury derailed his season. Even when he was playing he only fought the other teams' tough guys; he's too slow to really put a scare into anyone useful as sppedy forwards can easily get around him. This could have easily been switched with the Jody Shelley contract with Philadelphia.
6. Shawn Horcoff, Edm: Six years, $33 million ($5,500,000 cap hit)
Horcoff is very luck to be getting the paycheck he is receiving. A $5.5 million price tag is pretty high for someone who has onyl reached the 20 goal mark twice. The Oilers are going to have some potentially expensive RFAs to resign in the next few years, including Devin Dubnyk, Andrew Cogliano, Linus Omark and Sam Gagner and, if their rebuild is going as planned, they will want to add some key free agents to build towards a playoff run. That will be hard to do with Horcoff, who has scored 22 goals in two seasons after signing the deal, causing such a big cap hit.
5. Eric Staal, Car: Seven years, $57.75 million ($8,250,000 cap hit)
Only three players, Alex Ovechkin, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, have a higher cap hit than Eric Staal. It is good they got their franchise player locked up for the long-term and while they still have plenty of cap space at the moment, they may be in trouble once Jeff Skinner, Brandon Sutter and Jamie McBain are up for pay raises. As impressive as his resume is with a 100 point season and Stanley Cup under his belt, it is hard to believe he is making more per season than Brad Richards, Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Lundqvist and the Sedins.
4. Rick DiPietro, NYI: Fifteen years, $67.5 million ($4,500,000 cap hit)
Truth be told, if it wasn't for his injury woes DiPietro's contract wouldn't be that bad. A $4.5 million cap hit for a reliable goalies isn't a bad deal. The key word there is reliable. In the five years since signing the deal, DiPietro has only played 162 games, an average of 32 per season, and twice failed to play 10 games due to lingering groin problems. The Islanders are still stuck with him for another decade. Should he finally stay healthy and become anywhere near the caliber goalie worth being the number one pick, this contract won't seem that bad. Until then, 15 years will seem like 30 as he spends most of his time on the shelf. Some good news for the Islanders though, next season Alexei Yashin, even though he hasn't played in four years, ceases to be their highest paid player. That distinction will fall to DiPietro who has pretty much done the same thing.
3. Scott Gomez, Mtl: Seven years, $51.5 million ($7,357,143 cap hit)
How can a guy who has only reached the 20 goal mark once in seven seasons get a contract that big? Even for Glen Sather, that's bad. He hasn't scored more than 16 since signing the deal and won't even score 10 this year. He makes almost $2.5 million more than Brian Gionta who brings a lot more to the table and is the main reason the Canadiens are so close to the cap ceiling this season. the Canadiens have to sign at least 11 players in the offseason and only $25 million to work with. Losing Gomez's cap hit would be a big help, but it's hard to imagine another team willing to take him on, especially after declining numbers the past four seasons.
2. Vincent Lecavalier, TB: Eleven years, $85 million ($7,727,273 cap hit)
Lecavalier's contract is going to be a burden on the Lightning for the next nine seasons. They have about $9 million in cap space this season, but even with Simon Gagne's $5.25 million coming off the books, that number will surely get closer to the ceiling as GM Steve Yzerman has to give raises to Steven Stamkos and Teddy Purcell and sign a number one defenseman and two goalies. I don't know what Lecavalier did to earn this contract. He is a good player, but take away his 52 goal season in 2006-07 and he averages just 26.8 goals per season. Not exactly Michael Jordan-like stats, so why is he receiving Michael Jordan-like money?
1. Brian Campbell, Chi: Eight years, $57.143 million ($7, 142,875 cap hit)
Campbell is one of the biggest winners of the idea of supply and demand in free agent history. The only puck-mover on the market three years ago, Campbell benefited greatly from a strong contract year, including 19 points in 20 games to end the season with the San Jose Sharks. A weak free agency class surely made him appear more attractive than he should have been to then-GM Dale Tallon. At 6-foot, 189 pounds, Campbell has trouble with bigger forwards and isn't overly physical (though I bet R. J. Umberger would love to argue that point). With five players making over $5 million and less than $30,000 in cap space, GM Stan Bowman would love for Campbell's contract to disappear. His is clearly the most burdensome in the NHL.
Wednesday, 16 March 2011
Playoff Implication Trends-Western Conference
I did the Eastern Conference yesterday, here is the Western Conference. Same thing, who is getting hot and who is slowing down and what that may mean for the playoffs.
Trending Up
Jonathan Toews: At the midpoint of the season, it looked as though the summer salary purge had crippled the Chicago Blackhawks. Their goaltending was inconsistent without Antti Niemi and the teams lacked the character and grit that took them to the Stanley Cup last season. They appeared ready to become just the third team since 1995 to win the Cup and miss the playoffs the next season until Toews decided to go on a tear. In the 20 games since Feb. 1, Captain Serious has 13 goals, 18 assists and 31 points and has played to a +18 over that span, leading them to a 12-4-4 record. They are now in sixth place in the Western Conference, just one point out of fourth where I predicted them to finish in the summer. The 22-year-old, who has already won the Conn Smyth Trophy as playoff MVP and named the top forward after winning the gold medal at the Olympics, has entered the Hart Trophy debate as well. With Toews playing so well and Corey Crawford settling in as the team’s netminder, a third consecutive trip to the Western Conference final could be in the cards.
Vancouver Canucks: It’s a scary idea that the best team in the league is actually getting hotter, but such is the reality in southern British Colombia. An 8-2-0 record in their past 10, the Cancuks have an 11 point lead over the Detroit Red Wings in the West and an eight point lead over the Philadelphia Flyers in the race for the Presidents Trophy. Whether or not that ends up being a good thing remains to be seen, but Roberto Luongo is having his best season, Ryan Kesler is getting hot again and their secondary scoring is giving support to the Sedins. Defencemen Kevin Bieksa, Andrew Alberts and Alex Edler could all be back by the playoffs, making the league’s top defensive team even better. The past two Presidents Trophy winners have lost in the first round, but I feel this Canucks team is deep enough and has all the right pieces to become the eighth team since 1989-90 to reach the Stanley Cup final after recording the best regular season record and not one of the fie teams to go out in the first round.
Trending Down
Henrik Zetterberg/Johan Franzen: Zetterberg’s production has come to a near halt recently. One goal and four points in his past ten games and zero points in the past six, the usually defensively responsible Zetterberg has also played to a -10 over that span. Franzen scored five goals against the Ottawa Senators on Feb. 2 and has just one since then. The Mule has started picking up points recently, but needs to return to the form that has seen him go through stretches as one of the top goal-scorers in the league. His points-per-game is much higher in the playoffs (59 points in 51 games, 1.16 PPG) than the regular season (118 in 170, .69 PPG) the past three seasons, so maybe the Wings just need to wait until the end of April rolls around before he really catches fire. Detroit is just 4-4-2 recently while giving up 30 goals and are now just six points above the surging Blackhawks for the Central Division lead. Going into any sort of slump can cause a team to fall fast in the ultra-tight Western Conference, so Zetterberg and Franzen need to regain their form before the Red Wings squander their home-ice position.
Nashville Predators: This is a scrappy team that always seems to over-achieve, but if they keep going the way they are now, they may miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. They are one of the best defensive teams in the NHL and have been for years. They have three wins this month, two by shutout and one against the Colorado Avalanche, and four in the past 12 games. Five of the eight losses in that stretch have come by one goal. They need more goal support as Pekka Rinne can’t brig them to the playoffs by himself. In the past 10 games, Sergei Kostitsyn has one assist, Patric Hornqvist, David Legwand and J.P. Dumont have one goal each and Colin Wilson has two points for a team that is already ranked 26th in offense. Missing out on the playoffs may also make it tougher to re-sign stud defenseman, franchise player and captain Shea Weber who is an RFA at the end of this season. Unless he signs before July 1, it is a safe bet one team will get his signature on an offer sheet at a price the Preds may be unable to match.
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Playoff Implication Trends-Eastern Conference
It's my estimation the best thing for a team going into the playoffs is to be riding a hot streak. Every team goes through hot and cold streaks during the year and going in limping may spell doom for your favorite team. This is not a perfect formula, but you can bet the Philadelphia Flyers rode the momentum of their season-ending shootout win over the New York Rangers pretty far in their run to the Stanley Cup final last year. Here are some teams and players who are trending in a certain direction and how it may affect their playoff chances. I'll do the eastern Conference today and the West tomorrow.
Trending Up
Thomas Vanek: With Derek Roy done for the year just 35 games into the season, the pressure has been on Ryan Miller more than ever. After posting amazing numbers last year (41-18-8, 2.22 GAA, .929 SV%) he has become more pedestrian this year (29-20-7, 2.70 GAA, .912 SV%) leaving the Buffalo Sabres in a fight for one of the bottom seeds. In come the notoriously streaky Vanek who has two goals and eight points in his past five games, four of which have been Sabres wins. They are currently tied with the Rangers for eighth, four points over the Carolina Hurricanes. With six of their next thirteen games, including tonight's game against the Hurricanes, against teams within six points of catching the Sabres, it is important Vanek keep this hot streak up. they have seven games remaining against teams in the top-half in goals against and five (Nashville Predators, Montreal Canadiens , New Jersey Devils, the Rangers and Washington Capitals) are in the top 10 meaning goals are going to be very difficult to come by for the rest of the season. Should Vanek stay at at least a point per game, the Sabres should be in good shape to lock down one of the final spots.
Washington Capitals: The best thing that could have happened to the Capitals this season did. They struggled. They haven't been able to score, they faced a number of important injuries and their goaltending has been inconsistent. The transition towards a defensive game in the beginning of the season didn't go quite as smooth as planned, but they have righted the ship and are ready to soar in the playoffs. Winners of their past eight and 10 of 11 allowing only 19 goals (13 taking away their 6-0 loss to the Rangers) in that span, the Caps are playing well at the right time of the year. They have been so dominate the past two seasons, it may have caused them to think the playoffs would be a breeze, but they were sadly mistaken both times. A 50-24-8 record for 108 points (fourth overall in the NHL) and 54-15-13 record for 121 points (first overall) the past two seasons was followed by just one playoff series win and two Game 7 losses on home ice. Alex Ovechkin has seven goals and 17 points in his past 12 games and after facing adversity for the first time in three seasons, he appears ready to play a complete game and dominate in the playoffs.
Trending Down
Tim Thomas: Throughout most of the season, Thomas was on pace to obliterate records for goals-against average and save percentage. At the end of January, he was on pace for the third lowest GAA since the modern era began in 1947 with a 1.81 GAA (only Miikka Kiprusoff, 1.69 2003-04 and Marty Turco, 1.72 2002-03 have been lower) and the highest save percentage by far at .945 (Dominik Hasek, .937 1998-99). Those numbers, while still the best in the league by far, have slowly been dropping the in month-and-a-half since. His stats since the beginning of February are a 5-4-2 record, .915 SV% and 2.73 GAA. Unless he allows eight goals every game from now until the end of the season, he is all but guaranteed the Vezina Trophy. At the same time, the Bruins are starting to struggle to score goals, potting more than two just once in the past six games. It becomes even tougher to score in the playoffs as they found out last year when their offense suddenly went dry after game 4 against the Flyers in the second round and if Thomas' 2.73 GAA since February keeps climbing, the Bruins could be in trouble. Right now they are set to face the Canadiens, a team who has given them trouble throughout their long rivalry and has at least three goals in eight of their past nine. Thomas is still having a phenomenal season, but now is not the time for his game to start slipping.
Philadelphia Flyers: As I stated above, each team goes through slumps and the Flyers are in theirs right now. A 4-4-2 record in their past 10 isn't terrible until you see who they are losing to. Three of the losses are against teams out of a playoff spot (Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Atlanta Thrashers) and two of them are against the two teams tied for eighth (Sabres, Rangers). Two of those losses are really embarrassing, dropping a 7-0 decision against rival Rangers and blowing 3-0 and 4-2 leads in the third period to lose in overtime to the Thrashers. Their 4-1 win against the Edmonton Oilers doesn't really count because, well, its the Oilers. This does not bode well because since the lockout, four of the five Stanley Cup winning teams (assuming they make it that far) have had a better record in their last 10 games than their counterpart. Last season, only three of eight series was won by the team that had a worse record in their last 10 games. The team with the worst record to win a playoff series was the Canadiens who went 3-4-3 before upsetting the Capitals. It took them overtime to beat the Islanders and the two games against the Leafs were close and not very well played. They still have 14 games to get this trend turned around, but with their goaltending starting to falter and their history with that position, it doesn't look so good right now.
Trending Up
Thomas Vanek: With Derek Roy done for the year just 35 games into the season, the pressure has been on Ryan Miller more than ever. After posting amazing numbers last year (41-18-8, 2.22 GAA, .929 SV%) he has become more pedestrian this year (29-20-7, 2.70 GAA, .912 SV%) leaving the Buffalo Sabres in a fight for one of the bottom seeds. In come the notoriously streaky Vanek who has two goals and eight points in his past five games, four of which have been Sabres wins. They are currently tied with the Rangers for eighth, four points over the Carolina Hurricanes. With six of their next thirteen games, including tonight's game against the Hurricanes, against teams within six points of catching the Sabres, it is important Vanek keep this hot streak up. they have seven games remaining against teams in the top-half in goals against and five (Nashville Predators, Montreal Canadiens , New Jersey Devils, the Rangers and Washington Capitals) are in the top 10 meaning goals are going to be very difficult to come by for the rest of the season. Should Vanek stay at at least a point per game, the Sabres should be in good shape to lock down one of the final spots.
Washington Capitals: The best thing that could have happened to the Capitals this season did. They struggled. They haven't been able to score, they faced a number of important injuries and their goaltending has been inconsistent. The transition towards a defensive game in the beginning of the season didn't go quite as smooth as planned, but they have righted the ship and are ready to soar in the playoffs. Winners of their past eight and 10 of 11 allowing only 19 goals (13 taking away their 6-0 loss to the Rangers) in that span, the Caps are playing well at the right time of the year. They have been so dominate the past two seasons, it may have caused them to think the playoffs would be a breeze, but they were sadly mistaken both times. A 50-24-8 record for 108 points (fourth overall in the NHL) and 54-15-13 record for 121 points (first overall) the past two seasons was followed by just one playoff series win and two Game 7 losses on home ice. Alex Ovechkin has seven goals and 17 points in his past 12 games and after facing adversity for the first time in three seasons, he appears ready to play a complete game and dominate in the playoffs.
Trending Down
Tim Thomas: Throughout most of the season, Thomas was on pace to obliterate records for goals-against average and save percentage. At the end of January, he was on pace for the third lowest GAA since the modern era began in 1947 with a 1.81 GAA (only Miikka Kiprusoff, 1.69 2003-04 and Marty Turco, 1.72 2002-03 have been lower) and the highest save percentage by far at .945 (Dominik Hasek, .937 1998-99). Those numbers, while still the best in the league by far, have slowly been dropping the in month-and-a-half since. His stats since the beginning of February are a 5-4-2 record, .915 SV% and 2.73 GAA. Unless he allows eight goals every game from now until the end of the season, he is all but guaranteed the Vezina Trophy. At the same time, the Bruins are starting to struggle to score goals, potting more than two just once in the past six games. It becomes even tougher to score in the playoffs as they found out last year when their offense suddenly went dry after game 4 against the Flyers in the second round and if Thomas' 2.73 GAA since February keeps climbing, the Bruins could be in trouble. Right now they are set to face the Canadiens, a team who has given them trouble throughout their long rivalry and has at least three goals in eight of their past nine. Thomas is still having a phenomenal season, but now is not the time for his game to start slipping.
Philadelphia Flyers: As I stated above, each team goes through slumps and the Flyers are in theirs right now. A 4-4-2 record in their past 10 isn't terrible until you see who they are losing to. Three of the losses are against teams out of a playoff spot (Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Atlanta Thrashers) and two of them are against the two teams tied for eighth (Sabres, Rangers). Two of those losses are really embarrassing, dropping a 7-0 decision against rival Rangers and blowing 3-0 and 4-2 leads in the third period to lose in overtime to the Thrashers. Their 4-1 win against the Edmonton Oilers doesn't really count because, well, its the Oilers. This does not bode well because since the lockout, four of the five Stanley Cup winning teams (assuming they make it that far) have had a better record in their last 10 games than their counterpart. Last season, only three of eight series was won by the team that had a worse record in their last 10 games. The team with the worst record to win a playoff series was the Canadiens who went 3-4-3 before upsetting the Capitals. It took them overtime to beat the Islanders and the two games against the Leafs were close and not very well played. They still have 14 games to get this trend turned around, but with their goaltending starting to falter and their history with that position, it doesn't look so good right now.
Week 7 Work
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Tuesday
Wednesday
- THN.com Blog: Letang emerging as another Penguins star
- THN.com Blog: NHL must suspend Zdeno Chara for hit on Max Pacioretty
Thursday
- Around The AHL: Looking at the playoff drive
- THN.com Blog: Why so few coaches have been fired this season
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Saturday, 12 March 2011
Best Seat In The House
When you're sitting on the glass, shelling out $400 per seat per game, you're thinking you have the best seats in the house and wondering why anyone one would willingly sit in the seats just an arms length from the retired number and championship banners hanging from the rafters. But then you're near the roof, looking Bill Barilko right in the eye, you know there is no better place to watch a hockey game and you never really want to sit anywhere else ever again. There is a good reason all the press, scouts and coaches sit up there
I've been to two games in the press box so far, a 6-5 shootout win for the Pittsburgh Penguins on Feb. 26 and a 3-2 Philadelphia Flyers win on March 10. Watching from hundreds of feet above the ice, almost looking straight down at the play, i can see everything perfectly from the breakout and fore-check strategy to the guy wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs Wayne Gretzky jersey in row eight.
Sitting down low and watching from up high, you are really at two different games. Watching down low, you get a tremendous appreciation for the speed and power of the game. You can get speedsters Marian Gaborik, Phil Kessel and Michael Grabner skating by so fast you can get whiplash trying to watch them. It's almost impossible to understand how they think, let alone make plays at such high speeds. The power and aggression is also very evident down low. You can see the action on TV, but watching just how pissed off Chris Pronger is as he battles his opponent in front of the net is something else.
As good as those seats are for entertainment purposes, you do not beat sitting in the press box for hockey purposes. Up high, the game becomes a slow-motion ballet where each pass is made with the precision of a surgeon and each breakout blooms like a flower on Planet Earth. It is so fun watching a play develop and seeing how much room the players actually have out there, where down low, you don't get that. Another major difference is i don't have to switch from watching live-action to watching the video board whenever the play is not directly in front of me, missing valuable milli-seconds of action. In the press box, I barely have to turn my head to take in the entire rink.
The subtleties of the game are so clear from this vantage point from rookie Keith Aulie's hesitance in the offensive zone to Blair Betts' mastery on defense. That room I mentioned was evident watching Claude Giroux's patience while the Flyers keep the puck away from the Leafs on a delayed penalty. The gaps can close quite quickly though and it is incredible they can see the game as it is up high while playing it at the speed down low.
I am able to easily follow the Dion Phaneuf blast that deflected off Mikhail Grabovski's face and into the top corner of the net and I have a great angle on Mike Brown's amazing rush (that's probably never been typed before) that led to a Joffrey Lupul goal to pull the Leafs within one goal. The fore-check is an aspect I really enjoy watching as the strategy is hard to see from down low. I can clearly see the Flyers switch to a 1-2-2 late in the game as they try to hold on to their slim lead. In short, this view allows me to see everything except why Jody Shelley is in the NHL.
There are other perks to having a media pass other than the great view. Being able to go behind the scenes in the ACC and get into the locker rooms in pretty cool too. The game against the Flyers got off to a good start before the game even began. I drove to the rink with Ken Campbell straight from the office and on our way to the media room, we ran into the injured Pronger. He and Ken got into it a little bit, throwing some jabs at each other with Pronger mocking his size. All in good fun of course and it was really funny, say what you want about Pronger on the ice, off it he really is a great personality and the NHL could certainly use more guys like him.
Sitting in the press box is just a great experience, not just because of the view, but because of all the amenities as well. I'll start with the free food. It's nothing special at the ACC compared to others arenas (so I've been told), but there is still popcorn, pretzels, soda, water, ice cream and a few other snacks. Saturday games are great as everyone gathers for Coach's Corner with Don Cherry and I gotta tell you, it's not just Americans who aren't used to him who think he's out of his mind, everyone there did as well. During the Flyers game, I sat right in front of the Leafs play-by-play man and got to listen to his commentary the entire game. Those people do an absolutely incredible job. Even with the game slowing down, their ability to call all the action so clearly is stunning. There is a line of TVs so I get to see a replay almost instantly, bringing the best part of watching sports at home to the rink. I also get to share space with some well-known people in the hockey community including Brad May, Nikolay Zherdev and the great Chris Therien.*
It is a strange feeling to go from shouting my lungs out as an anonymous voice in a crowd of 18,000 to saying "Hey Brian, can I talk to you for just a minute?" Asking the same of Hartnell and having him respond "You have a minute, 30 seconds" because he was in a rush, but still answering my off-topic questions was another eye-opening experience. Talking to these guys I grew up cheering for and getting to know them, even in the slightest and just for story, on a first-name basis is just a small part of why this is the greatest internship and will be the greatest job imaginable.
*Please note there is some serious sarcasm at the end of this sentence.
Saturday, 5 March 2011
Week 6 Work, March 21 Issue and Future Watch
A few new interns as well as work on upcoming special issue magazine Draft Preview and book Hockey's Greatest Records means not as much editing this week.
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Tuesday
Wednesday
- THN.com Blog: Why Brendan Morrison and the Flames should enjoy the ride
- THN.com Top 10:Best NHL deadline trades
- Rumor Roundup: Trade deadline leftovers
Thursday
Friday
March 21 Issue
I think it's fitting the first issue to feature a lot of my work also has a good amount of articles on the Flyers.
Written
- Pg. 7-From The Philadelphia Flyers Locker Room: Settlymyre Gets The Flyers Geared For Success, As part of an ad for Blademaster, Flyers equipment manager Derek Settlemyre discusses his job and the Blademaster.
- Pg. 9-Fun & Games For A Reason, How the Canucks are using animations of their mascot, Fin, to teach fans proper etiquette at a hockey game.
- Pg. 13-Chilled Out, The end result of a fan making a $50,000 charity shot that was waived off.
- Pg. 26-Larger Market Rookies In high Demand, As part of the Memorabilia & Collectibles section, I look at how rookie jersey and autograph sales are affected by the market they play in.
Edited
- Pg. 12-Shooting Left The Right Way, A look into the lefty vs. righty debate.
- Pg. 20-Undaunted, The cover story about Flyers forward Danny Briere and how he has overcome adversity to become one of the league's elite snipers and playoff performers.
- Pg. 35-Fisher's Rent-To-Own, How Nashville's trade for Mike Fisher may be the best and most important in their history.
- Pg. 42-Beyond The Spotlight: Climb Was Tough For 'King' Kwong, A look back at Larry Kwong, the first non-white player in the NHL.
Future Watch
With all these articles, I made them fit into the space they are in now, came up with the headings and sub-headings and wrote all the captions that aren't quotes.
- Pg. 4-Editor's Notebook: The Grisworld & The Kitsyns, A look at one of many interesting draft stories.
- Pg. 6-Up Front: Pipeline Prodigies, The teams with the most Top 50 Prospects in the past 10 years.
- Pg. 8-Top Prospect: Brayden Schenn, Ken Campbell takes an inside look at King's prospect Brayden Schenn.
- Pg. 14-Representation: Sign Here, Young Man, What young players should look for when deciding on an agent.
- Pg. 15-From the Atlanta Thrashers Locker Room: Stewart Into Third Decade Of NHL Career, Thrashers equipment manager Bobby Stewart is in his second tour of duty in the deep south.
- Pg. 16-No. 1 Team Edmonton: Quick Fixes No More, How the Oilers fortunes are turning around due to the draft.
- Pg. 20-Team Grades: Report Cards...And More, Ranking the teams prospects and handicapping the system.
- Pg. 22-Anaheim Ducks, Each team's story profiles their top 10 prospects.
- Pg. 23-Atlanta Thrashers
- Pg. 25-Buffalo Sabres
- Pg. 26-Calgary Flames
- Pg. 28-Chicago Blackhawks
- Pg. 30-Columbus Blue Jackets
- Pg. 31-Dallas Stars
- Pg. 32-Detroit Red Wings
- Pg. 33-Edmonton Oilers
- Pg. 34-Florida Panthers
- Pg. 35-Los Angeles Kings
- Pg. 36-Minnesota Wild
- Pg. 37-Montreal Canadiens
- Pg. 39-New Jersey Devils
- Pg. 40-New York Islanders
- Pg. 41-New York Rangers
- Pg. 42-Ottawa Senators
- Pg. 43-Philadelphia Flyers
- Pg. 49-Toronto Maple Leafs
- Pg. 50-Vancouver Canucks
- Pg. 52-Sneak Peek: 2011 Draft, A profile of Kitchener Ranger Gabriel Landeskog.
- Pg. 54-Sneak Peek: 2012 Draft, An inside look at Everett Silvertips defenseman Ryan Murray.
- Pg. 56-Sneak Peek: 2013 Draft, Darnell Nurse of the Don Mills Flyers is featured here.
- Pg. 58-NHL Talent Pipeline, The London Knights are the leading producers of NHL talent iun the junior level.
- Pg. 60-Free Agent Watch, A look at the top college free agents.
- Pg. 62-Rewind, Looking back at the 2001 and 2006 Future Watch classes.
- Pg. 64-Rewind, A review of 20 years of Future Watch.
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